#6 - Commissioner: Budget forecasters project a revenue

[Jeremy Press]

Hi President,

If an author says a plan is the "only" way to accomplish a goal, it means they think that plan is necessary to accomplish the goal (without it, the goal won't get done, since it's the only way). Thus, they think the plan is required. Just remember, "only" is an indicator of a necessary condition, and a necessary condition is a required condition. That's enough to get you there on this one. Hope this helps!

[davidp95]

Even if says that it is projected , should we take it as certain? That is what led me to pick A. Even though I clearly had written down that the flaw was one due to them not considering other methods. I have seen that I tend to pick answers such as this one that attacks the premise and not the premise when it’s not 100 percent certain

[Rachael Wilkenfeld]

David, the stimulus here doesn't suggest that the shortfall is "far from certain." It's a forecast, a prediction, but a prediction based on a professional analysis. It's relying on uncertain but likely information.

Generally with bad arguments, the flaw will be somewhere between the premises and the conclusion. We can think about the argument's premises as containing reasons to believe the conclusion. The problem isn't typically that the reasons aren't valid, but that the reasons don't support the conclusion drawn. That's what we have going on here. The reason the commissioner states that we have to decrease expenditures by using his plan is that there is a projected shortfall, and we can't raise more revenue. Therefore, he concludes that his way of decreasing expenditures is the only way to fix it.

The space between the premises and the conclusion is the difference between we need to reduce the expenditures and we need to reduce the expenditures IN THIS WAY.

Hope that helps!