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- Mon Mar 12, 2012 2:13 pm
#85355
Complete Question Explanation
Cannot Be True—Numbers and Percentages. The correct answer choice is (A)
Let us first review the facts given in the stimulus:
Statement: For a ten‑month period, the total monthly sales of new cars within the country of
Calistan remained constant.
The wording of this statement should alert you that numbers and percentages in the form of
market share (“monthly sales...remained constant”) may be an issue in this problem. Note
that the statement is a simple fact; no explanation is given for why the total sales stayed
constant.
Statement: During this period the monthly sales of new cars manufactured by Marvel
Automobile Company doubled, and its share of the new car market within
Calistan increased correspondingly.
If total monthly sales of new cars remains constant and Marvel’s sales doubled, then Marvel’s
share of the new car market must also have doubled. Again, no explanation for Marvel’s
increase is given; the increase is just stated as a fact.
Statement: At the end of this period, emission standards were imposed on new cars sold
within Calistan.
Imposing new emission standards serves as a chronology marker in this stimulus. Again, no
explanation is given for why the new standards were imposed.
Statement: During the three months following this imposition, Marvel Automobile
Company’s share of the Calistan market declined substantially even though its
monthly sales within Calistan remained constant at the level reached in the last
month of the ten‑month period
This sentence is the key to the stimulus. From a numbers and percentages standpoint, we are
given two pieces of related information: during the three months after the emissions standards
were imposed, Marvel’s monthly sales of new cars within Calistan remained constant at
the pre-standards level, and at the same time Marvel’s share of the market declined. From
the discussion in Chapter Seventeen, we know that if sales remain constant but the share
represented by those sales decreased, then the overall sales in the market must have increased.
For example:
The other important part of this sentence is what is not said. No cause is given for Marvel’s
decline, and you cannot assume that the new emissions standards are the cause of the decline
(causal indicators are needed to convey causality, and none are present in this stimulus).
Remember, one error of causal reasoning is to assume that because two things occur in
sequence that one caused the other. There could be many different explanations for Marvel’s
decline other than the new emission standards. For example, Marvel could have raised their
car prices or perhaps Marvel received some negative publicity about the quality of their
cars. Regardless, the problem is clearly designed to test whether you will fall into the trap
of assuming that the new emission standards caused Marvel to lose market share, so read
carefully and do not fill in the “spaces” in the stimulus.
Answer choice (A): This is the correct answer. As shown in the discussion of the last sentence of the
stimulus, in the three months after the imposition of the emissions standards, the total monthly car
sales in Calistan must have risen, and since Marvel’s monthly car sales remained constant, we can
conclude that the sales of other car makers must have risen. Since this answer claims they decreased,
this answer cannot be true and is correct.
Answer choice (B): This answer is possibly true. The stimulus indicates that Marvel doubled sales
and market share in the ten months prior to the imposition of the emissions standards, and it is
possible that in the three months prior to the implementation of the new standards the market share
of the other companies decreased.
Some students look at this answer and assume that it must be true based on the first two sentences
of the stimulus. But that judgment assumes that Marvel’s growth during the ten-month period was
constant, a circumstance never stated by the author. It would be consistent with the stimulus if
Marvel doubled sales in the first month and then remained constant for the remaining nine months,
which would allow for its competitors to gain market share during the last three months.
Answer choice (C): No reason is given for Marvel’s loss of market share (or alternately, the increased
sales of other manufacturers), so it is possible that the new emission standards actually decreased
Marvel’s loss of market share (or alternately, the emission standards limited the increase in sales of the
other manufacturers). Remember, no explanation is given for the situation after the imposition of the
emission standards, so whatever happened in the absence of the standards could always be true.
Answer choice (D): This answer could occur because Calistan’s future car sales could fall due to a
variety of causes (including the emission standards). This is true regardless of whether the emissions
standards remain in force because we know nothing of the effect of the standards.
Answer choice (E): No information is given about profit in the stimulus, so this answer choice could
be true.
Cannot Be True—Numbers and Percentages. The correct answer choice is (A)
Let us first review the facts given in the stimulus:
Statement: For a ten‑month period, the total monthly sales of new cars within the country of
Calistan remained constant.
The wording of this statement should alert you that numbers and percentages in the form of
market share (“monthly sales...remained constant”) may be an issue in this problem. Note
that the statement is a simple fact; no explanation is given for why the total sales stayed
constant.
Statement: During this period the monthly sales of new cars manufactured by Marvel
Automobile Company doubled, and its share of the new car market within
Calistan increased correspondingly.
If total monthly sales of new cars remains constant and Marvel’s sales doubled, then Marvel’s
share of the new car market must also have doubled. Again, no explanation for Marvel’s
increase is given; the increase is just stated as a fact.
Statement: At the end of this period, emission standards were imposed on new cars sold
within Calistan.
Imposing new emission standards serves as a chronology marker in this stimulus. Again, no
explanation is given for why the new standards were imposed.
Statement: During the three months following this imposition, Marvel Automobile
Company’s share of the Calistan market declined substantially even though its
monthly sales within Calistan remained constant at the level reached in the last
month of the ten‑month period
This sentence is the key to the stimulus. From a numbers and percentages standpoint, we are
given two pieces of related information: during the three months after the emissions standards
were imposed, Marvel’s monthly sales of new cars within Calistan remained constant at
the pre-standards level, and at the same time Marvel’s share of the market declined. From
the discussion in Chapter Seventeen, we know that if sales remain constant but the share
represented by those sales decreased, then the overall sales in the market must have increased.
For example:
The other important part of this sentence is what is not said. No cause is given for Marvel’s
decline, and you cannot assume that the new emissions standards are the cause of the decline
(causal indicators are needed to convey causality, and none are present in this stimulus).
Remember, one error of causal reasoning is to assume that because two things occur in
sequence that one caused the other. There could be many different explanations for Marvel’s
decline other than the new emission standards. For example, Marvel could have raised their
car prices or perhaps Marvel received some negative publicity about the quality of their
cars. Regardless, the problem is clearly designed to test whether you will fall into the trap
of assuming that the new emission standards caused Marvel to lose market share, so read
carefully and do not fill in the “spaces” in the stimulus.
Answer choice (A): This is the correct answer. As shown in the discussion of the last sentence of the
stimulus, in the three months after the imposition of the emissions standards, the total monthly car
sales in Calistan must have risen, and since Marvel’s monthly car sales remained constant, we can
conclude that the sales of other car makers must have risen. Since this answer claims they decreased,
this answer cannot be true and is correct.
Answer choice (B): This answer is possibly true. The stimulus indicates that Marvel doubled sales
and market share in the ten months prior to the imposition of the emissions standards, and it is
possible that in the three months prior to the implementation of the new standards the market share
of the other companies decreased.
Some students look at this answer and assume that it must be true based on the first two sentences
of the stimulus. But that judgment assumes that Marvel’s growth during the ten-month period was
constant, a circumstance never stated by the author. It would be consistent with the stimulus if
Marvel doubled sales in the first month and then remained constant for the remaining nine months,
which would allow for its competitors to gain market share during the last three months.
Answer choice (C): No reason is given for Marvel’s loss of market share (or alternately, the increased
sales of other manufacturers), so it is possible that the new emission standards actually decreased
Marvel’s loss of market share (or alternately, the emission standards limited the increase in sales of the
other manufacturers). Remember, no explanation is given for the situation after the imposition of the
emission standards, so whatever happened in the absence of the standards could always be true.
Answer choice (D): This answer could occur because Calistan’s future car sales could fall due to a
variety of causes (including the emission standards). This is true regardless of whether the emissions
standards remain in force because we know nothing of the effect of the standards.
Answer choice (E): No information is given about profit in the stimulus, so this answer choice could
be true.
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