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 KelseyWoods
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#84584
Hi Jocelyn!

You are correct that a correlation does not prove causation. But a correlation does provide evidence of causation. A correlation between high cholesterol and heart disease doesn't definitively prove that high cholesterol causes heart disease, but it does offer some support for a causal link.

Now look at the wording of answer choice (C) again: "It presents but ignores evidence that, for some people, high cholesterol contributes to heart disease."

Answer choice (C) doesn't say that the argument proves that high cholesterol contributes to heart disease. It just says that it presents evidence that high cholesterol contributes to heart disease. And a correlation is evidence even if it isn't proof.

The important thing to remember about causal reasoning is that it's very difficult to definitively prove causal relationships but that doesn't mean we can't still provide evidence that supports them. And just as it can be difficult to definitively prove a causal relationship, it can also be difficult to definitively disprove a causal relationship. As the first sentence in this stimulus notes, even though there's a correlation that between high cholesterol and heart disease, many people with high cholesterol never develop heart disease and many people without high cholesterol do develop heart disease. These are some of our classic ways of weakening causal arguments--we've got the cause without the effect and the effect without the cause. But weakening an argument is not the same as disproving an argument. Even though we have evidence that high cholesterol does not always cause heart disease and heart disease is not always caused by high cholesterol, that doesn't necessarily prove that high cholesterol does not sometimes cause heart disease and that heart disease is not sometimes caused by high cholesterol. Flawed causal reasoning occurs when authors try to prove or disprove causal relationships definitively. But it's acceptable to conclude that there is evidence for or against a causal relationship.

So the first sentence offers evidence that for some, but not all people, high cholesterol might be a contributing factor to heart disease because of the correlation between them (also, notice that "contribute to" does not mean that it's the sole cause, just one potential cause). But then the author draws a conclusion that there is "no reason" to make dietary changes for the sake of preventing heart disease, even though the correlation does provide at least some sort of reason to make dietary changes. That's the flaw that answer choice (C) describes.

Hope this helps!

Best,
Kelsey
 Coleman
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#86388
My last contenders were B and C and I ended up choosing the correct answer, but want to make sure some subtleties to extract the right reasoning. The stimulus says "Although high cholesterol levels have been ASSOCIATED WITH the development of heart disease." Does this statement imply a causal relationship? - high cholesterol level (Cause) and development of heart disease (Effect)
I was confused because I thought those are just two variables that show a positive correlation. If it is casual, why it can't be the other way around such as heart disease as cause and cholesterol level as effect?

Thank you in advance!
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 Poonam Agrawal
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#88349
Hi Coleman,

To answer your first question - associations are not proof of causal relationships, but they can be offered as evidence for causal relationships (as explained by Kelsey above). However, it does take a LOT of evidence to prove a causal relationship, and an association is really just a start. So, the first sentence implies that there potentially could be a causal relationship but we don't know for sure.

As for your second question - I think that because the stimulus specifically says the development of heart disease, you have to have the high cholesterol levels first and then the heart disease follows. So, high cholesterol would be the cause and the effect would be heart disease. I guess you could argue that we don't really know for sure which is the cause and which is the effect, but this doesn't really change the fact that it is always possible for high cholesterol to be the cause, which always keeps answer choice (C) as a contender.

Hope that helps!

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