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Question #21: Flaw. The correct answer choice is (A).
The driver observes that minivans have lower accident rates compared to sports cars, i.e. that low accidents and minivans correlate. On the basis of this correlation, he concludes that by switching to a minivan, he would lower his accident rate. This conclusion is causal, as it depends on the implicit assumption that minivans cause a decrease in one's risk of getting into an accident:
- Cause Effect
Minivans Lower accident rate
Answer choice (A): This is the correct answer choice. See explanation above.
Answer choice (B): The statistical sample is not necessarily too narrow. Both the sample and the conclusion are about the same types of cars.
Answer choice (C) is attractive, but incorrect. Minivans most definitely have lower accident rates: this is not a matter of likelihood, but a matter of certainty. The author's' mistake is the assumption that he can benefit from these lower accident rates by driving a minivan.
Answer choice (D) is incorrect, because there is no Mistaken Reversal here. This would be like saying:
All minivans have lower accident rates compared to other cars. I've never had an accident, so I must be driving a minivan.Answer choice (E) is incorrect, because the author "has done his research." There is no reason to question the reliability of his sources.