Crystal Ball

[tessajw]

So if all past tests since 2020 have been non disclosed, how do Dave and Jon know how successful their crystal ball predictions have been, if they have no access to the test that was administered....

They have shown comparisons claiming how often types of LR questions appeared on the past tests that they then claim nobody has access too and they cant give them to us and they are non disclosed.

Confused...seems like a scam.

[Dave Killoran]

Hi Tessa,

Thanks for the questions! We've explained how this works on a few occasions previously, but let me explain it here so we can put your mind at ease

First, I can see how it might sound strange that we can know what is on nondisclosed exams. But remember that after the main test is over, students typically discuss what sections they had and frequently post online about the basics of the content they saw. This has been common for years.

As we mentioned in the Crystal Ball, we can take that info and connect back to the records we've kept for over 25 years and see which test sections they are using. That is what allows us to track their usages, which we then report after each test on our PowerScore LSAT podcast recap. Thus, if someone had an RC passage about "Sign language (ASL) and symbolic language structures," which happened to be on the June 2024 LSAT, we could then track it back to when prior students saw it. Once you build a picture of the pattern of test usages, it makes it easier to get an idea of what might be coming next. It's certainly much more complicated than that, but that's at least a basic picture of what we are doing.

As for your scam reference, we don't sell the webinar and for the last 3+ years we gave it away free to the public and allowed anyone to attend and access the recording! That seems about the opposite of a scam. This last time we limited it to PS students only, but that is because it's an entirely new test format and we are trying to be careful about making predictions because it's possible LSAC throws a curveball out there and goes an entirely new direction with what they use (which we plainly stated in the webinar itself). If things go in August as they have in the past, we will once again make it fully publicly available to everyone for free, and we're on record as having said that multiple times already

Plus, think about this: we've had tens of thousands of attendees and viewers at these events over the course of years--don't you think if it was scam that would've been found out already? Instead, there's been widespread praise for how often we've gotten it right (see: https://blog.powerscore.com/lsat/powers ... ally-help/). We don't get it right every time--and we've been very honest about that--but that's what happens when you are predicting something that should be unpredictable.

Second, as for the claims about "how often types of LR questions appeared on the past tests," I think you missed the fact that Jon notes that those usages are based on past released tests. They are not based on nondisclosed tests, and the theory there is that what LSAC does in the past is a good indicator of what they will do in the future (which has proven to be a great theory!). It's why he mentioned that those charts were the same as the ones we showed in the April/June Crystal Ball, because no new tests have been released in the interim.

I hope this helps explain what you are seeing. Thanks!

[tessajw]

"Scam" wasn't referring to the availability and cost of the session. It was referring to the deception of the source of the confirmation and validation of past "successful" predictions. I was confused on how and where you had access to the information on the past tests, and it seemed as though their was access you had that was being hidden. I see now you get it entirely from students who have taken the test and online discussions, not an actual reliable source - which I thought was what was being implied when predictions were denoted successful.

I am unsure though how the session being available to the entire public would make it "the opposite of a scam" - the unrestricted access to this session when you have students who are actually paying for your course makes it so that the paid customers are getting no more information than those who are not paying. As you said, the LSAT is a competition, which is why people elect to take this course. Making the session available to the public only limits the advantage of those paying.

Thanks for clarifying where the information comes from though!

Best!

[Dave Killoran]

Thanks for the reply! A few thoughts:

I see now you get it entirely from students who have taken the test and online discussions, not an actual reliable source - which I thought was what was being implied when predictions were denoted successful.

Just to be clear, I never said this and it is not the case. As noted above, "It's certainly much more complicated than that, but that's at least a basic picture of what we are doing. " Part of what we do is a trade secret that we will never explain, and there is more to it than just student reports.


Re: the scam definition, I think if you read my reply carefully you will see I addressed components of that beyond cost and availability. The validity of what we do is beyond question--we've repeatedly been right and done so in a way that is fully publicly documented. And, to further prove the point, here in August we were once again correct in predicting content that appeared. The record itself is the best proof that it works

Thanks!