Probability Question from LRB

[180nce]

Hey guys,

On page 42 of the 2015 LRB, you provide the example "The post office on Main Street has been closed every Sunday since 1956, so it will probably be closed this Sunday as well."

You use this example to show that the term "probably" prevents the reasoning above from being flawed. If the term "probably" was omitted from the statement, would the statement have flawed reasoning?
If so, would the reasoning be flawed because it assumes that just because something occurred in the past, it will happen in the future?

Thanks!

[Nikki Siclunov]

Hi 180nce,

You are absolutely correct. The only reason why this conclusion does not contain a temporal flaw in the reasoning is the inclusion of the word "probably." The fact that the post office has been closed every Sunday since 1956 is sufficient evidence to establish a high likelihood of it being closed next Sunday, but of course it does not prove with 100% certainty that it will be closed that day.

You can't ever prove what will happen in the future... only death and taxes are certain, or so they say

Thanks!

[180nce]

Thanks so much!