Difference between "might be" and "probably"

[jenmd_]

I had a question about the LSAT Logic Reasoning Bible. Wouldn't "might be" be the same as "probably"? Page 73 Chapter 2.

[Adam Tyson]

Thanks for the question, jenmd_! "Might be" is an expression of possibility, and that includes only minute possibility that is well below the threshhold for probability. I might win the lottery, but the odds are overwhelmingly against it. Reese Witherspoon might ask me out to dinner, but my wife and I aren't banking on it happening (which is why my wife says if it happens, it's okay if I leave her for Reese). If something might happen, then there is a great-than-zero-percent chance of it occurring, but it need not be much.

"Probably" means there is a greater than 50% chance of something occurring, and that is a lot stronger and more extreme of a statement than that something "might be" true. The sun is probably going to rise tomorrow. Southern California is probably going to have more large earthquakes in my lifetime. I am probably never going to have dinner with Reese Witherspoon.

Might just means could. Probably means more likely than not. That's about it!