- PowerScore Staff
- Posts: 5853
- Joined: Mar 25, 2011
- Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:25 pm
#21376
We've been asked a lot this month about our prediction that scores from the December 2015 LSAT will be released on December 31st. Let me take a moment to walk through why we made that prediction, and what factors could affect the release date.
First, when you take the LSAT, they give you an official release date. For example, the official December 2015 LSAT release date is Tuesday, January 5th. However, for almost every LSAT, they release scores earlier than the official date. See: http://blog.powerscore.com/lsat/bid/153 ... -2004-2014. As you can see, in the last decade, scores have been released up to 13 days early. On one occasion they were released on the official date, and on one occasion they were late, but that was due to a very bad storm (Hurricane Sandy flooded Newtown, if I recall correctly). So, LSAC’s "official" release date is more like a "it will be out by this date, and likely earlier."
If you look at just the December releases, it was many years ago when they released them really early. Why? Because they take a break between Christmas and New Year's and in those instances they released them prior to the Christmas holiday (an early present, as it were). Then starting in 2008, that changed. They released scores during the LSAC break, which surprised everyone. This is an interesting trend, and it reflects why their currently-scheduled break doesn't make us think they won't release scores between Christmas and New Year’s—they've done it before, including last year when they released December scores on New Year’s Day.
For recent December LSATs, they've settled into a 2 or 4 day early-release pattern. This would suggest January 1st or 3rd. So, why didn't we predict one of those dates, or just split the difference and predict January 2nd? Because of the regular registration deadline for the February 2016 LSAT. If you look back at the score release of the October 2015 LSAT, you see that it came in 6 days early, which is earlier than October had ever been released relative to the official date. October is the biggest test of the year in terms of test taker volume, so it always takes a long time to process, making substantially early releases all the more difficult. So why was it early, and released on October 22nd when the official deadline was October 28th? Because the regular online registration deadline for the December 2015 LSAT was October 23rd. So, by releasing it on October 22nd, LSAC gave October test takers a full day to decide if they needed to retake the LSAT in December, without being penalized by late registration fees.
So, when we looked at the December score release date, we took into account the February 2016 LSAT regular online registration deadline. What's that date? December 31st. Now, the 30th would make a lot of sense (a full day before the deadline, as was done for October), but it's earlier than they've ever released a recent December LSAT. Hence, we went with the 31st, while still acknowledging the 30th as a real possibility.
So, what's changed since then? Two things:
1. LSAC posted an announcement on their site about offering a refund to December test takers waiting on scores who decide to retake in February but have to register late. Uh oh, that makes us think that scores could be released after December 31st! I mean, why create a buffer period if people will have scores in time for regular registration?
But, does LSAC want to issue a bunch of refunds? No way, and so it might just be a method to cover themselves in case there is an issue, or if they decide to release scores on December 31st and know that only gives people a few hours to decide to retake or not without penalty.
2. Test results at the University of California Santa Barbara were lost by UPS. The poor souls at UCSB now have to retake the exam on January 9th (or wait until February if they can't make that date). How does this affect things? We don't honestly know; it's an unknown variable that happens so rarely that you can't predict the effect at this juncture. I personally think it will have no effect on the release date for the rest of December testers, but it is possible that it might delay all scores so that everyone receives their score closer together (last time this happened, in February 2012, LSAT scores were just 1 day early).
As LSAT developments go, all of this is really interesting, but it is torture for December LSAT takers. Currently, we are still predicting December 31st as the release date, and we're betting that the LSAT refund announcement is an acknowledgment that scores won't be out on December 30th or earlier. But, it's just a prediction, and it could be incorrect. If I were in Vegas I'd put money down on 12/31 but I wouldn't bet the house
So, at least now you know what we were thinking and why. If you have any questions about that, please let me know. Thanks and happy holidays!
First, when you take the LSAT, they give you an official release date. For example, the official December 2015 LSAT release date is Tuesday, January 5th. However, for almost every LSAT, they release scores earlier than the official date. See: http://blog.powerscore.com/lsat/bid/153 ... -2004-2014. As you can see, in the last decade, scores have been released up to 13 days early. On one occasion they were released on the official date, and on one occasion they were late, but that was due to a very bad storm (Hurricane Sandy flooded Newtown, if I recall correctly). So, LSAC’s "official" release date is more like a "it will be out by this date, and likely earlier."
If you look at just the December releases, it was many years ago when they released them really early. Why? Because they take a break between Christmas and New Year's and in those instances they released them prior to the Christmas holiday (an early present, as it were). Then starting in 2008, that changed. They released scores during the LSAC break, which surprised everyone. This is an interesting trend, and it reflects why their currently-scheduled break doesn't make us think they won't release scores between Christmas and New Year’s—they've done it before, including last year when they released December scores on New Year’s Day.
For recent December LSATs, they've settled into a 2 or 4 day early-release pattern. This would suggest January 1st or 3rd. So, why didn't we predict one of those dates, or just split the difference and predict January 2nd? Because of the regular registration deadline for the February 2016 LSAT. If you look back at the score release of the October 2015 LSAT, you see that it came in 6 days early, which is earlier than October had ever been released relative to the official date. October is the biggest test of the year in terms of test taker volume, so it always takes a long time to process, making substantially early releases all the more difficult. So why was it early, and released on October 22nd when the official deadline was October 28th? Because the regular online registration deadline for the December 2015 LSAT was October 23rd. So, by releasing it on October 22nd, LSAC gave October test takers a full day to decide if they needed to retake the LSAT in December, without being penalized by late registration fees.
So, when we looked at the December score release date, we took into account the February 2016 LSAT regular online registration deadline. What's that date? December 31st. Now, the 30th would make a lot of sense (a full day before the deadline, as was done for October), but it's earlier than they've ever released a recent December LSAT. Hence, we went with the 31st, while still acknowledging the 30th as a real possibility.
So, what's changed since then? Two things:
1. LSAC posted an announcement on their site about offering a refund to December test takers waiting on scores who decide to retake in February but have to register late. Uh oh, that makes us think that scores could be released after December 31st! I mean, why create a buffer period if people will have scores in time for regular registration?
But, does LSAC want to issue a bunch of refunds? No way, and so it might just be a method to cover themselves in case there is an issue, or if they decide to release scores on December 31st and know that only gives people a few hours to decide to retake or not without penalty.
2. Test results at the University of California Santa Barbara were lost by UPS. The poor souls at UCSB now have to retake the exam on January 9th (or wait until February if they can't make that date). How does this affect things? We don't honestly know; it's an unknown variable that happens so rarely that you can't predict the effect at this juncture. I personally think it will have no effect on the release date for the rest of December testers, but it is possible that it might delay all scores so that everyone receives their score closer together (last time this happened, in February 2012, LSAT scores were just 1 day early).
As LSAT developments go, all of this is really interesting, but it is torture for December LSAT takers. Currently, we are still predicting December 31st as the release date, and we're betting that the LSAT refund announcement is an acknowledgment that scores won't be out on December 30th or earlier. But, it's just a prediction, and it could be incorrect. If I were in Vegas I'd put money down on 12/31 but I wouldn't bet the house
So, at least now you know what we were thinking and why. If you have any questions about that, please let me know. Thanks and happy holidays!
Dave Killoran
PowerScore Test Preparation
Follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/DaveKilloran
My LSAT Articles: http://blog.powerscore.com/lsat/author/dave-killoran
PowerScore PodCast: http://www.powerscore.com/lsat/podcast/
PowerScore Test Preparation
Follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/DaveKilloran
My LSAT Articles: http://blog.powerscore.com/lsat/author/dave-killoran
PowerScore PodCast: http://www.powerscore.com/lsat/podcast/
